When Did Economics Become Mathematical?
Gerard Debreu (1991)
Gerard Debreu (1991) estimates that the year 1944 could be considered a turning point for the use of mathematics in economics.
He reaches this conclusion by noting an increase in the number of pages published by two academic journals of mathematical economics – Econometrica and the Review of Economic Studies – beginning in 1944 and the subsequent founding of new academic journals which together dramatically increased the annual number of pages published in this discipline.
The development of mathematical economics during the past half-century can be read in the total number of pages published each year by the leading periodicals in the field, an index that I will follow at first. From 1933, the date when they both started publication, to 1959, those periodicals were Econometrica and the Review of Economic Studies, and the index tells of the decline from a high point, above 700 pages in 1935 to the lowest point, below 400 pages in 1943-1944. But 1944 marked the beginning of a period of explosive growth in which Econometrica and the Review of Economic Studies were joined in 1960 by the International Economic Review, in 1969 by the Journal of Economic Theory, and in 1974 by the Journal of Mathematical Economics. In 1977, these five periodicals together published over 5,000 pages. During the period 1944-1977, the index more than doubled every nine years. By that measure, 1944 was a sharp turning point in the history of mathematical economics. (pg. 1)
Debreu also notes an increase in the use of mathematics in papers published in the American Economic Review which coincides with the increased lengths of Econometrica and the Review of Economic Studies in the mid-1940’s and the founding of new publications in mathematical economics shortly thereafter.
While the professional journals in the field of mathematical economics grew at an unsustainably rapid rate, the American Economic Review underwent a radical change in identity. In 1940, less than 3 percent of the refereed pages of its 30th volume ventured to include rudimentary mathematical expressions. Fifty years later, nearly 40 percent of the refereed pages of the 80th volume display mathematics of a more elaborate type. (pg. 1)
He also observes a concurrent increase in the proportion of professors at top American economics departments elected Fellows of the Econometric Society.
At the same time, the mathematization of economists proceeded at an even faster pace in the 13 American departments of economics labeled by a recent assessment of research-doctorate programs in the United States (Lyle V. Jones et al., 1982) as "distinguished" or "strong" according to the scholarly quality of their faculties. Every year the Fellows of the Econometric Society (ES) certify new members by election into their international guild, which increased in size from 46 in 1940 to 422 in 1990. For those 13 departments together, the proportion of ES Fellows among professors was less than 1 percent in 1940; it is now close to 50 percent. It equals or exceeds 50 percent for six of them, which were among those assessed as the eight strongest. …. Several faculty members of the 13 departments of economics …. were actually identified as mathematicians by their doctorates; four of them served as chairmen of those departments during the past 25 years. If still sharper focus brings out the intellectual leaders of that development, prominent among them is John von Neumann, one of the foremost mathematicians of his generation. (pg. 1 & 2)
Written By: Aiden Singh Published: November 12, 2020
Sources
Gerard Debreu. The Mathematization of Economic Theory. The American Economic Review. March 1991. Vol. 81, No. 1. pg. 1-7.